【Powell議長の英語公演🥰】"曇り空の下、星を頼りに航海し続ける"米国金融政策運営：日経新聞解説📣 2023/08/26

　米連邦準備理事会（ＦＲＢ）のパウエル議長は２５日、米西部ワイオミング州で開かれたジャクソンホール会議で講演した。インフレ率について「依然として高すぎる」と指摘したうえで「適切ならさらに利上げする用意がある」と述べた。（関連記事総合２面に）

　パウエル議長は今回の講演のメッセージについて「（インフレ抑制を優先する決意を示した）２０２２年の講演と同じだ」と説明した。
前回のジャクソンホール会議の講演は、ＦＲＢが景気悪化を懸念して引き締めを緩めると考える市場関係者をけん制する内容で、株価の急落を招いた経緯がある。

　パウエル議長は、堅調な経済成長や労働市場の逼迫が予想を超えた場合は「さらなる金融引き締めが正当化される可能性がある」とも指摘し、インフレ鎮圧には「まだ長い道のりがある」と強調した。

　昨年のピーク時に９％を超えていた米消費者物価指数の上昇率は足元で３％台まで下がり、ＦＲＢも利上げペースを段階的に落としている。
パウエル議長は足元のインフレ率鈍化の要因を、供給制約の解消や利上げの効果が出ていると分析した。

　そのうえでパウエル議長は「このプロセスは最近の指標がより良好であったとしても、まだ長い道のりがある」と語った。
「引き締め的な金融政策がますます重要な役割を果たす」とも述べ、２２年ぶりの高水準にある現在の政策金利を長期間、維持する考えを示唆した。

　９月に予定されている次回の米連邦公開市場委員会（ＦＯＭＣ）について直接的な言及はしなかったものの、追加利上げの可能性は排除しなかった。
具体的には労働市場の逼迫が和らぎつつある流れが滞った場合や、想定を超える高成長が今後も続いた場合を挙げた。

　一方、パウエル議長は「さらに引き締めるか、政策金利を一定に保ち、さらなるデータを待つかは慎重に決めたい」とも指摘。
経済データ次第で追加利上げと停止双方の可能性に言及した。

The Outlook
Turning to the outlook, although further unwinding of pandemic-related distortions should continue to put some downward pressure on inflation, restrictive monetary policy will likely play an increasingly important role.

Getting inflation sustainably back down to 2 percent is expected to require a period of below-trend economic growth as well as some softening in labor market conditions.

Economic growth
Restrictive monetary policy has tightened financial conditions, supporting the expectation of below-trend growth.5

Since last year's symposium, the two-year real yield is up about 250 basis points, and longer-term real yields are higher as well—by nearly 150 basis points.6

Beyond changes in interest rates, bank lending standards have tightened, and loan growth has slowed sharply.7

Such a tightening of broad financial conditions typically contributes to a slowing in the growth of economic activity, and there is evidence of that in this cycle as well.

For example, growth in industrial production has slowed, and the amount spent on residential investment has declined in each of the past five quarters (figure 4).

But we are attentive to signs that the economy may not be cooling as expected. So far this year, GDP (gross domestic product) growth has come in above expectations and above its longer-run trend, and recent readings on consumer spending have been especially robust. In addition, after decelerating sharply over the past 18 months, the housing sector is showing signs of picking back up.

Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy.

The labor market
The rebalancing of the labor market has continued over the past year but remains incomplete.
Labor supply has improved, driven by stronger participation among workers aged 25 to 54 and by an increase in immigration back toward pre-pandemic levels.
Indeed, the labor force participation rate of women in their prime working years reached an all-time high in June.

Demand for labor has moderated as well. Job openings remain high but are trending lower. Payroll job growth has slowed significantly.
Total hours worked has been flat over the past six months, and the average workweek has declined to the lower end of its pre-pandemic range, reflecting a gradual normalization in labor market conditions (figure 5).(…)

We expect this labor market rebalancing to continue. Evidence that the tightness in the labor market is no longer easing could also call for a monetary policy response.

Uncertainty and Risk Management along the Path Forward

Two percent is and will remain our inflation target. We are committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to that level over time.
It is challenging, of course, to know in real time when such a stance has been achieved. There are some challenges that are common to all tightening cycles.

For example, real interest rates are now positive and well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate.
We see the current stance of policy as restrictive, putting downward pressure on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.
But we cannot identify with certainty the neutral rate of interest, and thus there is always uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint.
(. . .)
These uncertainties, both old and new, complicate our task of balancing the risk of tightening monetary policy too much against the risk of tightening too little.

Doing too little could allow above-target inflation to become entrenched and ultimately require monetary policy to wring more persistent inflation from the economy at a high cost to employment.
Doing too much could also do unnecessary harm to the economy.

As is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies. In such circumstances, risk-management considerations are critical. At upcoming meetings, we will assess our progress based on the totality of the data and the evolving outlook and risks.

Based on this assessment, we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data.
Restoring price stability is essential to achieving both sides of our dual mandate. We will need price stability to achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.

We will keep at it until the job is done.