
æ³äººã®è³ç£éçšãå§ãã
2025幎ã«äŒç€Ÿã®çµå¶ã§æ°ãã«å§ããããšã«è³ç£éçšããããæ¬çš¿ã§ã¯ãã²ãšãäŒç€Ÿã«ãããè³ç£éçšãžã®åãçµã¿ã®éçšããµããããã
ãããŸã§åäººã§æ ªåŒæè³ãããŠããããå¿æŽããŠããäŒæ¥ã®æ ªãè²·ã£ãããé°å²æ°ã§æè³ããŠãããè³ç£éçšã®èŠç¹ããã¯ã»ãšãã©èªå·±æè³ããŠãããçŸåšã²ãšãäŒç€Ÿãçµå¶ããŠããã®ãèªå·±æè³ã®1ã€ãšãããããã£ãããšã®ãªãããšãã§ããããã«ãªãã®ãããããããšãããã·ã³ãã«ãªåæ©ã¥ãã§èªå·±æè³ããŠããã
è³ç£éçšã«åãçµããã£ãã
2025å¹Žã®æ¥é ã«äœèª¿ã厩ããŠå¥åº·äžå®ã«é¥ã£ããçŸä»£äººã¯çããŠããã ãã§ã¹ãã¬ã¹ãåããªããçæŽ»ããŠããããããæ¿ç¥ããäžã§ãããŠèªåŒã®ããèšãæ¹ããããšããªã«ãããŠããªãã®ã«äœèª¿äžè¯ã«ãªã£ãããããŸã§ããããåããŠåŠã¶ãšããã·ã³ãã«ãªç掻ãããŠãããå 霢ãããããã®ããæ¹ãäœåçã«éçã«ããã®ãããããªãããããŠããã以äžã® èªå·±æè³ãããªã ãšæ±ºãããæè³ã«å¯ŸããŠåŸãããçµæãææãèªåã«æ±ããªãããããŸã§ã®èªèº«ã®çãæ¹ãåŠå®ãããèŸã決æã§ããã£ããããã€åããªããªããããããªãèªèº«ã¯ä¿¡é Œã§ããªããšããäºå®ãå€ããããªãã
ã²ãšãäŒç€Ÿã®ã¡ãªããã®1ã€ãšããŠå人ãšã¯ç°ãªãæ³äººãšããäººæ ŒãåŸããããã²ãšãäŒç€Ÿãªã®ã§å®è³ªãèªåèªèº«ã§ã¯ãããããã®äººæ Œãåäººãšæ³äººã§äœ¿ãåãããšéœåã®ãããšããããã
è³ç£éçšã®æèã§ããã°ãåäººãšæ³äººã§ç°ãªãæè³æŠç¥ãåãããã«äººæ Œããå€ããŠããŸããšããããããããã«ã€ãªãããããšãã°ãå人ã§ã¯ãã倧ãããªã¹ã¯ãåã£ããå®éšçãªåãçµã¿ããããæ³äººã§ã¯å人ã®è³ç£éçšããåŸãçµéšãå ã«å®å®æ§ããªã¹ã¯ãåããªãæŠç¥ã§éçšãããšãã£ãèãæ¹ãã§ãããã€ãŸã1人ã§2ã€ã®æè³æŠç¥ãåãããšã§ãªã¹ã¯ç®¡çãåé¢ã§ããã
çšç士ãããšçžè«
æ³äººã§è³ç£éçšãããããšã«æžå¿µã¯ãªãã®ãïŒãŸãã¯çšç士ãããšçžè«ãããšããããå§ãããçšç士ããããã¯è³ç£éçšãã®ãã®ã¯æ§ããªãããæ¬¡ã®ããšã決ããŠããã®ã倧äºã ãšå©èšãåããã
è³ç£éçšã®ç®ç
åé ã«æžããããã«èªå·±æè³ãã§ããªãããããããŸã§ãããã¯ãéçºã®ããã«è²¯ããŠããäœå°è³éãæå¹æŽ»çšããããšãç®çãšãããåŽåæéãæžãããŠããããšã§å£²äžãæžã£ãŠããããšãæ³å®ãããå°ãã§ã売äžã®è¶³ãã«ãªãã°ããã
ãæ³äººãšããŠã®ãæè³ã¹ã¿ã€ã«
ã©ã®ãããã®æéã§ãªã¿ãŒã³ãç®æãã®ããã©ã®ãããã®å«ã¿æã蚱容ã§ããã®ãããšãã«åžå ŽãæªåããŠå«ã¿æãåºããšãã«ã¹ãã¬ã¹ãåããŠããŸã£ãŠæ¬æ¥ã«åœ±é¿ãåºãªãããšããèŠç¹ãã話ãããŠããã
çæã§ãªã¿ãŒã³ãåŸãããšèããŠããªã
ç®å®ãšããŠ3-5幎çšåºŠã®æè³æéã§ãªã¿ãŒã³ãèãã
æè³æé5幎ã ãšå«ã¿æãåºãå¯èœæ§ãåãå ¥ããå¿ èŠããã
ã©ã®ãããå«ã¿æãåºããšãã«æè³ãããããããããªãã
åžå ŽãæªåããŠå«ã¿æãåºãŠã5å¹Žã¯æè³ããããªã
æè³ææ³ã¯ã©ããããïŒ
ååãšããŠæè³ä¿¡èšã®ã¿ã§åæ£æè³ãã
éçšã¯å¹Žã«æ°åçšåºŠããŒããã©ãªãªã®ãªãã©ã³ã¹ããã
ç§ãæ©åçã«æææ±ºå®ãããŠå£²è²·ã¯ããªã
売買ã¯ãªãã¹ãä»çµã¿åããŠå®æçã«ãªãã¬ãŒã·ã§ã³ãã
äŸ) ç©ã¿ç«ãŠã§å®æçã«è³Œå ¥ãã
å®åçãªãšãã
æ¶è²»çšã®ç°¡æèª²çš (課çšå£²äž5000äžåãŸã§) ã®ç¯å²å ã§ããã°çšåçã«ã³ã¹ãã¯ããããªã
蚌åžäŒç€Ÿã®éžå®
ææ°æã®å®ãããã蚌åžã«ãã
æ³äººã«ä¿¡çšããªããšèšŒåžå£åº§ã®éèšãæåŠãããå¯èœæ§ããã
äŒèšã·ã¹ãã (freee) ãšèšŒåžå£åº§ã¯ API 飿ºã§ããªã
蚌åžå£åº§ã®è³éç§»åã売買ã®ä»åããæäœæ¥ã§è¡ãå¿ èŠããã
å¹Žã«æ°åçšåºŠã®ãªãã¬ãŒã·ã§ã³ãéçšã³ã¹ãã¯ç¡èŠã§ãã
蚌åžäŒç€Ÿã®éžå®
ã©ãããããããããªãã£ãã®ã§ ChatGPT ãšçžè«ããªããé©åœã«æ±ºãããæ¬¡ã®æ¯èŒè¡šãäœã£ãŠããã£ãŠã©ã³ãã³ã°ã®é«ãé ã«èšŒåžå£åº§ã®éèšç³è«ãããŠããããšã«æ±ºãããçµæçã«ã¯ SBI 蚌åžããã§éèšããã
æ¬¡ã®æ¯èŒè¡šã¯2025幎8æé ã« ChatGPT ãäœæãããã®ã«ãªããå å®¹ãæ£ãããã©ãããç§ã¯äžåè£ä»ããåã£ãŠããªãã誀ã£ãŠããå¯èœæ§ãããããšãèæ ®ããŠã¿ãŠã»ããã
é »ç¹ã«åãåŒãããªããããææ°æã®å€å¯¡ã¯ããŸãéèŠã§ã¯ãªããæ¬¡ã®è©äŸ¡åºæºã§ã©ã³ãã³ã°ã¥ãããŠãããã
åæ±ååã®å¹ ïŒåœå å€ã®æä¿¡ã»ETFã»åµåžã»REITã®å å®åºŠïŒ
ååŒã»ç®¡çããŒã«ã®å質ïŒPCã»ã¹ããäž¡æ¹ã®äœ¿ãããããåææ©èœïŒ
å£åº§ç®¡çã»å ¥åºéã®ããããïŒéè¡é£æºãåŠçã¹ããŒãïŒ
æ³äººåããµããŒãäœå¶ïŒæ³äººç¹æã®çžè«ã»å¯Ÿå¿åïŒ
ä¿¡é Œæ§ã»çµå¶åºç€ïŒèŠªäŒç€Ÿã®ä¿¡çšåãé害çºççã®äœãïŒ
å€è²šã»çºæ¿ååŒã®æè»æ§ïŒå€è²šå»ºãŠååŒãçºæ¿ææ°æãå€è²šé ããïŒ
ã¬ããŒãã»æ å ±æäŸã®è³ªïŒããŒã±ããã¬ããŒããåææ å ±ã®å å®åºŠïŒ

ç·ååã§éžã¶ãªã â SBI蚌åžïŒã»ãŒå šæ¹äœå¯Ÿå¿ïŒ
åµåžã»æµ·å€ETFéèŠãªã â ãããã¯ã¹èšŒåž
UIãæ¥åžžç®¡çã®ããããéèŠãªã â æ¥œå€©èšŒåž
ãµããŒãéèŠãªã â 倧åèšŒåž or äžè±UFJ eã¹ããŒã蚌åž
蚌åžå£åº§ã®éèšå®å (SBI 蚌åžãã)
Web ããæ³äººå£åº§éèšã®ç³èŸŒã¿ãè¡ããš1é±éçšåºŠã§ç³è«æžé¡ãå±ã
å£åº§éèšã«å¿ èŠãªãã®
å°é (å®å°ãšéè¡å°)
æ³äººå£åº§
æ¬äººç¢ºèªæžé¡
æ³äººã®å°é蚌æ (忬)
忥ç»èšç°¿è¬æ¬ (忬)
代衚è ã®æ¬äººç¢ºèªæžé¡ã2çš®é¡ (ã³ããŒå¯)
ãã€ãã³ããŒã«ãŒã
é転å 蚱蚌
åçš®ç³è«æžé¡ãèšå ¥ããŠèšŒåžäŒç€Ÿãžéä»ãã
審æ»ãéãã°å£åº§éèšã®æžé¡ãå±ã (2é±éããã)
çŸç©è³ç£ãšããèãæ¹
åã ã¡ãäžåç£é¢ä¿ã®ãä»äºãããŠãããè³ç£éçšãžã®åãçµã¿ã«ã€ããŠéè«ããŠãããšãã«çŸç©è³ç£ãèããŠã¿ããïŒãšå©èšãåããã
ããŸåããŠããã·ã§ã¢ãªãã£ã¹ã¯çŽ90äžåïŒå¹Žã®çµè²»ãããã£ãŠããã(åãå®¶è³ã§) 10幎åãç¶ãããšä»®å®ããŠã90äžå * 10 = 900äžåã§ã¯ã³ã«ãŒã ãã³ã·ã§ã³ãè³Œå ¥ããã°çµè²»ãåæžã§ããªããïŒãã10å¹Žä»¥äžæ»åšããã°ãããã«çµè²»ãåæžã§ããå¯èœæ§ãããã
å®éã«ã·ã§ã¢ãªãã£ã¹ãåããŠããå Žæã®è¿ãã§å£²ãã«åºãããŠããã¯ã³ã«ãŒã ãã³ã·ã§ã³ã調ã¹ãŠã¿ããããžãã¹çã«å©äŸ¿æ§ã®ãããšããã§ãªãã£ã¹ãåããŠããããããç¯40幎ã®éšå±ã600-900äžåãšãã£ãäŸ¡æ Œåž¯ã§ã¿ã€ãã£ã (ããããã®äŸ¡æ Œåž¯ã ãšç¯40幎以äžã§ãªããã°ã¿ã€ãããªã) ãèåŸã«äœãããã§ã¯ãªããã10幎ããŠã°ãããšèããŠã¿ãã
ããããææãããšå¥ã®çµè²»ãããããè³Œå ¥ããã¯ã³ã«ãŒã ãã³ã·ã§ã³ã®äŸ¡æ Œã900äžåãšããŠã·ãã¥ã¬ãŒã·ã§ã³ããŠã¿ãã
åºå®è³ç£çšã»éœåžèšç»çš
åºå®è³ç£çš 1.4ïŒ ïŒ éœåžèšç»çš 0.3ïŒ = åèš 1.7ïŒ
åºå®è³ç£çšè©äŸ¡é¡ã¯è³Œå ¥äŸ¡æ Œããäœã (äžè¬çã«7å²ååŸ)
900 * 0.7 = 630
630äžå * 1.7% â 11äžå/幎
ã€ã³ã¿ãŒãããã®éä¿¡è²»çš
5000å/æãšèŠç©ãã => 6äžå/幎
æ°Žéã»å ç±è²»
1äžåçšåºŠ/æãšèŠç©ãã => 12äžå/幎
ä¿®ç¹ç©ç«é
æ°åå/æ => 5000å/æãšããŠèŠç©ãã => 6äžå/幎
åèšãããšã11 + 6 + 12 + 6 = 35 äžå/幎ãããããšã«ãªããææç®ãããš2.9äžå/æã®çµè²»ãããããå°ãªããšã10幎åã®å®¶è³ã§æè³ååã§ããããã§ã¯ãªãããšãçè§£ã§ãããã¯ã³ã«ãŒã ãã³ã·ã§ã³ãžç§»ãããšã®å®æ§çãªã¡ãªãããšãã¡ãªãããèå¯ããŠã¿ãã
ã¡ãªãã
ã¯ãŒã¯ã¹ããŒã¹ãåºããªã
èªç±ã«ãã¬ãäŒè°ã§ãã
ãªãã£ã¹ã§é£äºã調çã§ãã
éäžããŠåããšãã«ãã®ãŸãŸæ³ãŸãã
ãã€ã¬ã®å©äŸ¿æ§ãäžãã
ãšã¢ã³ã³ã®æãã»å¯ãåé¡ãèµ·ãããªã
ãã¡ãªãã
äŒç€Ÿã®äºæ ã«ããåŒã£è¶ããããã«ãããªã
è€åæ© (ããªã³ã¿ïŒã¹ãã£ã) ã䜿ããªããªã
æ¥å®¢ã®æã¡åããã¹ããŒã¹ïŒæåäŒè°å®€ã䜿ããªããªã
ã¡ãªããããã¡ãªããããã©ã¡ããç§ã«ãšã£ãŠéèŠã§ã¯ãªããäžæ¹ã§ããŸåããŠããã·ã§ã¢ãªãã£ã¹ã¯ååã«ç«¶äºåã®ããäŸ¡æ Œåž¯ã§ãµãŒãã¹ãæäŸããŠããããšããçŸç©è³ç£ã®è³Œå ¥ã·ãã¥ã¬ãŒã·ã§ã³ããçè§£ã§ããã
ã·ã§ã¢ãªãã£ã¹ã®æžå¿µãšããŠã¯ã€ã³ãã¬ãšé£åããŠå®¶è³ãäžããå¯èœæ§ããããæ°å¹Žåã«å¥çŽãããšãã¯2å¹ŽæŽæ°ã ã£ãå¥çŽãã2024å¹Žã«æ¯å¹ŽæŽæ°ã«å€æŽããã (æŽæ°æã®äºåææ°æãå®è³ªå€äžã) ããããŠ2025å¹Žã®æŽæ°æã«å ±çè²»ã20%å€äžããšãªã£ãã
å¥åº·äžå®ããè³è²žãææããšããåãã«ãæææ±ºå®ã§ããªããããš10幎ãåãããããããªããšæ¶æ¥µççç±ã§çŸç¶ç¶æãšããã
2026-02-02 è¿œèš ãã³ã·ã§ã³ã¯è³ç£ãšã¿ãªãããïŒ
åºåææãã³ã·ã§ã³ãè³ç£ãšããŠç®¡çãããšãã®èœãšã穎ã®ãããªããšãæžãããŠããŠãããããã§ãã
ããŒããã©ãªãªã¥ãããšè³ç£éçš
ããŒããã©ãªãªãäœãäžã§ä¿¡é ŒããŠããæ å ±æºãšããŠåŸè€éä¹ããã® note ããããç§ã¯2022幎ããã³ã¢ã¡ã³ããŒãã©ã³ã«åå ããŠãããåœåã¯çµæžãã¥ãŒã¹ããããããã解説ããŠãããã®ã§çµæžã«ã€ããŠåŠã¶ãã£ããã«ããããšèããŠããã2025幎ã®å€é ããè³ç£éçšã«é¢å¿ããã£ãŠåŠã³å§ããçŽè¿ã®çµæžç¶æ³ãèžãŸããŠããŒããã©ãªãªãèå¯ãããšãã«åŸè€ããã®èãæ¹ãåèã«ããŠããã
ç§é ã«èšŒåžå£åº§ãéèšããŠãåœæã®ç¶æ³ããããã€ãç©ã¿ç«ãŠèšå®ãããŠäœå°è³éã3ã¶æãããŠæè³ããŠãããçŸæç¹ã§ã®ããŒããã©ãªãªã次ã«ãªãã

å§ãããšãã®äºå®ã§ã¯å€åœæ ªäžå¿ã«æè³ããããšãèããŠãããããã1-2ã¶æã§ AI ããã«ãžã®æžå¿µãæ¥ç±³éå©å·®ã®çž®å°ãªã©ãèæ ®ããŠèªç¶ã«ãã®ãããªé åã«èœã¡çãããããŸã売買ããããšãæ³å®ããŠããªãã®ã§æå³çã« REIT ãã¯ãããŠããã
äœè«ã ãããã®3ã¶æéã§ãã£ãšãå«ã¿çãå€ãã®ã¯éã ã£ãããŸãå šäœãšããŠã¯æççã1.29ïŒ ãšãªãã3-5幎çšåºŠããã€ã«ã¹ããŒã³ãšããŠãªãã©ã³ã¹ããªããéçšããŠãããã©ã®ãããã®é »åºŠã§ãªãã©ã³ã¹ããå¿ èŠããããã¯ããã®ãšãã®çµæžç¶æ³ã«ãã£ãŠå€ãã£ãŠããããã«æãããäžæŠã«å¹Žäœåãšã¯æ±ºããããªãã®ããªïŒãšãããããŸã®ææã
ããŒããã©ãªãªãã¿ããšæ ªåŒãšåµåžãã»ãšãã©åãå²åã«ãªã£ãŠããŸã£ããããŒããã©ãªãªãäœã£ãŠããŠå®æããã®ã¯ãæ¯æ°ããããªã£ãŠãæªããªã£ãŠããçºæ¿ãåå®ã«ãªã£ãŠãåé«ã«ãªã£ãŠããã©ã¡ãã«åããŠã倧ããå«ã¿æã«ãªããªãç¶æ ãç¶æããããäžæçãªã€ã³ã·ãã³ãã«äžåäžæããªããŠæžããããªç¶æ ãã€ããããšã倧äºã§ããããã«æããŠããã
2026-01-31 è¿œèš è³ç£éçšã®æ§é çè§£
2026-02-14 è¿œèš åºæºãèŠçŽãããŒããã©ãªãªã®ãªãã©ã³ã¹
2026-03-07 è¿œèš å°æ¿åŠãªã¹ã¯ãèæ ®ãããŒããã©ãªãªã®ãªãã©ã³ã¹
ã€ã³ãã¬ãšã¯ãªã«ã
è³ç£éçšãå§ããã«ããã£ãŠçµæžãã¥ãŒã¹ã«é¢ããŠçåãæããæ©äŒãå€ããªã£ããè³ç£éçšã®ãããªè©±é¡ã¯åã ã¡ãç¥äººãšè©±é¡ã«ããŠãæ¬é ãããåŸåãå€ããããã§æ°ã«ãªã£ããã¥ãŒã¹ã話é¡ã ChatGPT ãšããè°è«ããŠãããç§ã§ã¯ ChatGPT ã®åçã®æ£åŠã倿ã§ããªãããã€ã³ã¿ãŒãããã調ã¹ãã°ããããããªãåºæ¬çãªèæ¯ç¥èã«ã€ããŠè³ªåããããšãå€ãã
次ã®å 容ã ChatGPT ãšããåãããŠåŠãã ããšãç§ãèŠçŽãããã®ã«ãªãã誀ããå«ãŸããŠããå¯èœæ§ãé«ãã®ã§æ³šæããŠã»ããã
ã€ã³ãã¬ãçè§£ããããã«ã¯ãé貚ãšéã®äŸ¡æ Œãæ¯èŒãããšãããæ¬¡ã®ãã£ãŒãã¯éå»60幎ã®ãã«å»ºãŠéäŸ¡æ Œãšå®è³ªéäŸ¡æ Œ (ã€ã³ãã¬èª¿æŽåŸããã«å»ºãŠéäŸ¡æ Œ ÷ ç±³åœCPI) ã®æšç§»ãæ¯èŒãããã®ã«ãªãã


ãã«å»ºãŠéäŸ¡æ Œã®ãã£ãŒããã¿ãŠãå³è©äžããã«éã®äŸ¡å€ãäžãã£ãŠããããã«ã¿ããããããã¯ãã«ã®äŸ¡å€ãäžãã£ããšè§£éããã®ãæ¬è³ªã«è¿ããçŸä»£çµæžã®æšæºèšèšãšããŠãæ³å®é貚ã¯ã€ã³ãã¬ãåæã«äŸçµŠéãå¢ããããä»çµã¿ã«ãªã£ãŠãããããã¯æ³å®é貚ã®äŸ¡å€ãæå³çã«èãŸãããšã衚ããŠããã
äžæ¹ã§éã¯ãå¢ããªããããã䟡å€ãä¿åãããããã
èªç¶çã§ã®ç·éãã»ãŒæ±ºãŸã£ãŠãã
äžå€®éè¡ãåæã«å·ããªã
äœå幎ãã䟡å€ã®ä¿åææ®µããšããŠäœ¿ãããŠãã
éã¯ã€ã³ãã¬ã«å¯ŸããŠäžç«ãªååšãšãããã
ãã«å»ºãŠéäŸ¡æ Œã®ãã£ãŒããã¿ããšéã®äŸ¡å€ã¯å²äžé«å€åã«ã¿ããããå®è³ªéäŸ¡æ Œã®ãã£ãŒããã¿ããš1980幎é ã®æŽå²çããŒã¯ãšåæ°Žæºã«ã¿ãããå®è³ªéäŸ¡æ Œã®ãã£ãŒããããè¿å¹Žã®éäŸ¡æ Œã®äžæã¯éèã»è²¡æ¿ã»é貚äœå¶ãžã®äžä¿¡ãåæ ããããã®ãšè§£éã§ãããéã¯å²ããããã®è³ç£ã§ã¯ãªããé貚ãå£ããªãããæž¬ãèŠå ±è£ 眮ã«ãªãã
çŸåšã¯æ¬¡ã®ç¶æ³ãšãããã
髿°Žæºã®æ¿åºåµå
ã€ã³ãã¬ãå®å šã«ã¯é®éããŠããªã
å®è³ªéå©ã¯äžå®å®
å°æ¿åŠãªã¹ã¯ã¯åžžæ å
ããã¯éã«ãšã£ãŠ ãæé«ãã§ã¯ãªãããäžèŠãšãèšããªããç°å¢ã«ãªãã
éã¯äž»åœ¹ã§ã¯ãªã
ããŒããã©ãªãªã®å®å®è£ 眮
å®éçãªæé©è§£ã¯5ã10ïŒ ïŒä»ãªã7ã8ïŒ ãçŸå®è§£ïŒ
ãã以äžã¯ãä¿éºãã§ã¯ãªããææ©ãã«è¿ã¥ã
éã®äŸ¡å€ãå³ããšãã«ãã«å»ºãŠäŸ¡æ Œã®ãã£ãŒãã ãã§ã¿ãªãããšã倧äºã念ã®ãããéã¯ãã«å»ºãŠã§åãåŒããããããæ¥æ¬ã§è³Œå ¥ãããšçºæ¿ã圱é¿ããã®ã§ãã1ã€ã¬ã€ã€ãŒãå¢ããŠè€éåãããããã§ã¯ã€ã³ãã¬ã®è°è«ãããããã«å建ãŠã®è©±ã¯å²æããã
ã€ã³ãã¬ãçè§£ããŠæ°åãã¿ã
ã€ã³ãã¬ã«ã€ããŠèª¿ã¹ãŠãããšãã«æ¬¡ã®ãããªæçš¿ãã¿ãããã
ðºðžãç¥æ¿çããã©ã³ãæ¿æš©ãåœæ°å šå¡ããåã人ããž
â CRYPTOLANDð¯ðµããããã (@yonkuro_awesome) December 18, 2025
財åé·å®ãæèš
ãçãŸããæã«1,000ãã«ïŒçŽ15äžåïŒãé ãããšãéè·æã«60äžãã«ä»¥äžïŒçŽ1ååïŒã«ãªãã
S&P500 à è€å©ã«åºã¥ããèšç®ã§ã
ãŸãã«ãã¢ã¡ãªã«ã³ããªãŒã ðºðžâ
æ¥æ¬ã®å€¢ã¯ã©ãã§ããïŒð¯ðµðpic.twitter.com/vjieHDKVbe
è€å©ã®èšç® (åç®å€)
è€å©ã¯æ¬¡ã®èšç®åŒã§æ±ããããã
ãã®ãšãã® r ã®å€ã¯çŽ0.1125ãšãªãã幎平åæé·ç (CAGR) ã¯çŽ11.25%ã«ãªãããšãç®åºã§ããã
ããã§ S&P 500 ã®éå»60幎ã«ãããå®çžŸã調ã¹ããšæ¬¡ã«ãªãã
察象: S&P500ïŒé åœåæè³ã»åç®ãªã¿ãŒã³ïŒ
æé: çŽ60幎ïŒ1965幎 â 2025幎ïŒ
2025幎æ«ã®è©äŸ¡é¡: çŽ$39,650
幎次ãªã¿ãŒã³ã®ç®è¡å¹³å: 10.38%

ãã®ãã£ãŒãã§ã¯1965幎ã«100ãã«æè³ãããš2025幎æ«ã«è©äŸ¡é¡ã¯39,650ãã«ã®ãªã¿ãŒã³ãåŸããããšããäºå®ã瀺ããŠããããã®å€ã¯ç©äŸ¡äžæãç¡èŠããåç®å€ã«ãªãããã®åŸã§åç®å€ãšå®è³ªå€ã®éããã¿ãŠããã
2025幎æ«ã®è©äŸ¡é¡ã§ãã $39,650 ãã CAGR ãç®åºããã
ãã®å®çžŸããéç®ãã CAGR ã¯çŽ10.48%ãšãªãã幎次ãªã¿ãŒã³ã®ç®è¡å¹³å10.38%ãšã¯ç°ãªããCAGR ã¯éå§ïŒçµäºã®å€ããäžæã«å®ãŸããç®è¡å¹³åã¯è€å©ã®æé·çã衚ããŠããªããããè€å©èšç®ã«çšãããšå®éã®è©äŸ¡é¡ãšãã®äŸã§ã¯çŽ2200ãã«ã®å·®ç°ãåºããããã¯ç®è¡å¹³åã幎次ã®å€åãèæ ®ããªãææšã ããã§ããã
è€å©ã®èšç®ã«ã¯å¹Žæ¬¡ãªã¿ãŒã³ã®ç®è¡å¹³åã§ã¯ãªããCAGR ã䜿ãå¿ èŠãããã
11.25%ãšããå€ã¯ S&P 500 ã®éå»60幎㮠CAGR ãããé«ããã倧ããå€ããå€ã§ããªãããšã䌺ããããŸããã®æ°å€ã¯é åœãåæè³ããå€ã§ããããšãæèããŠããããšã倧äºã«ãªããé åœãåæè³ãããšè€å©å¹æã倧ãããæè³ä¿¡èšã§ã¯åé éãèªåã§åæè³ããèšå®ãäžè¬çã ããETF ãè³Œå ¥ãããšåé éãåãåããšãã«èª²çšãããäžã§æåã§åæè³ããããšã«ãªããçµæãšããŠèª²çšã¿ã€ãã³ã°ã«ããé·æã®å®å¹å©åããäœããªãå¯èœæ§ãããã
å®è³ªå€ãšã€ã³ãã¬
åç®å€ã ãã¿ããšã60幎åã« S&P 500 ã«æè³ãããéãçŽ400åã«ãªã£ãŠããããã«é¯èŠããŠããŸããæè³ã®ãªã¿ãŒã³ãè©äŸ¡ãããšãã¯ããå°ãè€éã§åç®å€ã§ã¯ãªãå®è³ªå€ãã¿ãå¿ èŠãããã
å®è³ªå€ãšã¯ãã€ã³ã㬠(ç©äŸ¡äžæ) ãèæ ®ããŠãè²·ããé (賌買å) ã§ã¿ãéé¡ã»å©åããã«ãªããæè³ã®ç®çã¯ããéãå¢ããããšããã®ãã®ã§ã¯ãªããå°æ¥ã®ç掻ãç¶æããããå¿ èŠãªç©ãè³Œå ¥ã§ããåãå¢ããããšã«ãªãã
ããã§ã¯åç®å€ãã¿ãªããŠããããšãããšããã§ããªããæ¬è³ªã¯å®è³ªå€ã ããçšéã¯åç®å€ã«ããããã€ã³ãã¬ã«ãããåç®å€ãäžãããšæ¯æãçšéãå¢ããå®è³ªå€ãã»ãŒãŒããŸãã¯ãã€ãã¹ã«ãªãå Žåãããã
é話äŒé¡ãå ã«åãäžããå®è³ªéäŸ¡æ Œãšåæ§ã«ãã€ã³ãã¬ãèæ ®ããå®è³ªå€ãã¿ãŠããã1965幎ã®100ãã«ã®äŸ¡å€ã¯2025幎ã§ã¯ãããã«çžåœããã®ããæ¬¡ã®ç±³åœ CPI (æ¶è²»è ç©äŸ¡ææ°) ã䜿ã£ãŠèšç®ããã
1965幎: çŽ31
2025幎: çŽ320
ãã®æ°å€ã䜿ã£ãŠ39,650ãã«ã1965幎ã®ãã«äŸ¡å€ã§æç®ãããšæ¬¡ã«ãªãã
ç±³åœ CPI ã®æ°å€ããæ¬¡ã®ããšããããã
60幎éã§ãã«ã®äŸ¡å€ãçŽååã®äžã«ãªã£ã
60幎éã§ãã«ã¯è³Œè²·åã90%倱ã£ã
ãã®å®è³ªå€ (賌買å) ã§ S&P 500 ã®ãªã¿ãŒã³ãè©äŸ¡ãããš60幎ã§çŽ40åã«ãªã£ãããšããããããã¡ããããã®æ°å€èªäœãååã«å€§ãããªã¿ãŒã³ãšãããã
å°æ¥ã®å®è³ªå€ãã·ãã¥ã¬ãŒã·ã§ã³ãã
éå»60幎ã«ããã CPI ã®æ°å€ãåèã«ãå ã®æçš¿ã®ãã«äŸ¡å€ãèšç®ããŠã¿ãã念ã®ããããã®ã·ãã¥ã¬ãŒã·ã§ã³ã®çµæèªäœã«ã¯ã»ãšãã©æå³ããªããå°æ¥ã®æ°å€ãçŸåšããã¿ãéå»ã®æ°å€ãšåçšåºŠã«ãªããšããæ ¹æ ã¯ãªã«ããªãããã®å 60幎㮠CPI ã®å€ãçŽ0.1ã«ãªããããããªãããS&P 500 ã®å¹Žå¹³åå©åããçŽ10%ã«ãªãããããããªãã
1000ãã«ã60幎åŸã«600,000ãã«ã«ãªããšããåç®å€ããS&P 500 ã®å¹Žå¹³åå©åãã«è¿ãçŽ11.25%ã§ãã£ãã®ã§ãããŸãšåçšåºŠã®ã€ã³ãã¬ãèµ·ãããšä»®å®ããã ãã®è©±ã§ãããªãã
60幎åŸã®600,000ãã«ã¯ãããŸã®äŸ¡å€ã§60,000ãã«ãšãªãã1ãã«=150åã§æç®ãããšã15äžåã900äžåã«ãªããšããã·ãã¥ã¬ãŒã·ã§ã³äžã®å€ãšãªããåç®å€ãšå®è³ªå€ã§åããå°è±¡ãå€ããããšã宿ã§ããã°ããã
é éãšã€ã³ãã¬
é éã¯ã€ã³ãã¬ã«å¯ŸããŠæ§é çã«åŒ±ãè³ç£ãšãããã
é¡é¢ãåºå® (ã€ã³ãã¬ã«å¿ããŠå€ãããªã)
å©åããã€ã³ãã¬ã«è¿œéããªã
ã€ã³ãã¬ã§èšããåç®å©æ¯ã«ãŸã§èª²çšããã
ã€ã³ãã¬ã«ãããŠé éã¯ç¢ºå®ã«äŸ¡å€ãåãããè³ç£ãšã¿ãªãããç±³åœã𿥿¬ã§ã¯éèæ§é ãç°ãªããããããã§ã¯æ¥æ¬ã®æ¶è²»è ç©äŸ¡ææ° (CPI) ãšé ééå©ãæ¯ã¹ãŠã¿ãã
2025幎11æã®æ¶è²»è ç©äŸ¡ææ° (CPI) ã¯åå¹Žåææ¯: +2.9%
2025幎12ææç¹ã®ããããéè¡ã®åæ®éé éã®éå©: 0.50%
çšç: 20.315%
çšåŒãåŸã®å®è³ªãªã¿ãŒã³ãçŽ -2.43% ã«ãªãã賌買åããã€ãã¹ã«ãªã£ãŠäŸ¡å€ãæ¯æããŠãããé éã¯çæã®æµåæ§ãæ¯æãææ®µãšããŠå¿ èŠãªãã®ã§ããããäžé·æã®è³ç£éçšã®èŠç¹ã ãšé éãå æ¬ä¿èšŒããŠããã®ã¯åç®å€ã§ãããã€ã³ãã¬ã«ãããŠã¯å®è³ªç¡ä¿èšŒãšã¿ãªããã